Key Takeaways
The NGFS published its first short-term climate scenarios in May 2025, introducing four near-term (3–5 year) pathways that model financial risk metrics like sector-specific probability of default and equity valuation adjustments, filling a critical gap for climate stress testing over business-planning horizons.
NGFS long-term scenarios (Phase V, November 2024) now estimate climate damages could reach 15% of global GDP by 2050 under 2°C of warming and 30% by 2100 under 3°C. These estimates are three times larger than earlier NGFS assessments, although the underlying physical risk methodology is under academic review.
The ECB’s 2025 EU-wide stress test integrated NGFS scenarios into its climate extensions, finding that transition risks added approximately 74 basis points of CET1 capital depletion, and acute physical risk (flood) added another 77 basis points beyond the standard adverse scenario.
Climate risk scenario analysis is not forecasting. Scenarios are plausible “what-if” pathways that help risk managers identify vulnerabilities, set risk appetite boundaries, and prepare contingency responses across a range of uncertain futures.
Effective integration requires connecting NGFS outputs to existing ERM processes: credit risk models (PD/LGD adjustments), market risk (portfolio repricing under carbon price paths), operational risk (data quality controls), and strategic risk (portfolio allocation and transition planning).
The NGFS updated its Guide to Climate Scenario Analysis in November 2025, emphasizing the growing importance of short-term scenarios and providing practical guidance for central banks, supervisors, and financial institutions on embedding scenario analysis into risk management and decision-making.

Climate risk scenario analysis has moved from the margins of sustainability reporting to the center of financial risk management in under five years. The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published its first set of climate scenarios in 2020.

By 2025, those scenarios had been adopted as the reference framework for supervisory climate stress tests at the ECB, Bank of England, and dozens of other central banks.

The May 2025 release of NGFS short-term scenarios added a missing piece: near-term (3–5 year) pathways with granular financial risk metrics that can be plugged directly into stress testing and capital planning cycles.

Yet many risk managers still treat climate scenarios as a compliance exercise run by the sustainability team.

That is a strategic mistake. The ECB’s 2025 stress test extensions found that adding climate transition and physical risk shocks to the standard adverse scenario increased CET1 capital depletion by a combined 150+ basis points for the most exposed banks.

Carbon Tracker’s analysis of NGFS Phase V data estimates potential GDP losses of 15% by 2050 under 2°C warming. These are not abstract environmental projections.

They are inputs to credit models, portfolio valuations, and capital adequacy decisions.

This guide provides a deep dive into climate risk scenario analysis using NGFS scenarios. Each section is written for risk managers who need to translate scenario narratives into quantitative risk outputs.

The approach maps to ISO 31000 risk management principles, COSO ERM components, and TCFD/ISSB disclosure requirements. You will learn how each NGFS scenario works, which risk channels it activates, and how to operationalize the outputs within an enterprise risk management framework.

What Is Climate Risk Scenario Analysis?

Climate risk scenario analysis is a forward-looking methodology for exploring how different climate and policy futures could affect an organization’s financial performance, asset values, and strategic position.

The NGFS defines scenarios as plausible “what-if” pathways, not predictions. They are designed to help institutions identify vulnerabilities across a range of uncertain futures rather than to assign probabilities to specific outcomes.

The NGFS updated Guide to Climate Scenario Analysis, published in November 2025, identifies three primary use cases: system-wide financial stability assessments conducted by central banks, supervisory stress testing of individual institutions, and internal risk management of portfolios and balance sheets.

The guide emphasizes that clarity of purpose is critical: a targeted exercise focusing on a few sectors differs fundamentally from a system-wide risk assessment covering the entire financial system.

Two distinct risk channels run through every climate scenario. Transition risk captures the financial impact of policy changes, technology shifts, and market repricing as economies move toward lower emissions.

Physical risk captures the financial impact of acute events (floods, wildfires, storms) and chronic changes (rising temperatures, sea level rise, water stress).

The interaction between these channels matters: a delayed transition scenario combines high transition risk (abrupt policy correction) with moderate-to-high physical risk (damage accumulated during the delay period).

Climate Scenario Analysis vs. Traditional Stress Testing

DimensionTraditional Stress TestClimate Scenario Analysis
Time horizon1–3 years (business cycle)3–5 years (short-term NGFS) to 30–80 years (long-term NGFS)
Scenario designMacroeconomic shocks (GDP decline, interest rate spikes, unemployment)Climate policy shocks (carbon prices), technology disruption, and physical hazard events
Risk channelsCredit, market, operational, liquidityTransition risk (policy, technology, market, reputation) + physical risk (acute, chronic)
Data inputsHistorical financial data, macro modelsIntegrated Assessment Models (IAMs), climate science, emissions pathways, energy system models
Regulatory anchorEBA/Fed/PRA stress test frameworksNGFS scenarios, TCFD recommendations, ISSB IFRS S2
Output formatCET1 depletion, loss estimates, capital adequacySame plus: sector heatmaps, implied temperature, carbon price sensitivity, stranded asset exposure

The NGFS Scenario Framework: Long-Term and Short-Term

The NGFS organizes its scenarios into three families based on the global policy response to climate change. Orderly scenarios assume early, coordinated policy action that limits warming to below 2°C.

Disorderly scenarios assume delayed or fragmented action that still achieves temperature targets but at higher economic cost. Hot house world scenarios assume limited policy ambition, resulting in severe physical risk.

Phase V (November 2024) introduced seven long-term scenario pathways evaluated across three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): REMIND-MAgPIE, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, and GCAM.

The May 2025 release of short-term scenarios marked a step change in practical utility. Developed by a consortium led by Climate Finance Alpha (CLIMAFIN), E3-Modelling, and IIASA, the short-term scenarios cover a 3–5 year horizon and provide financial risk metrics at granular sectoral and country levels.

These include sector-specific probability of default, equity and bond valuation adjustments, and monetary policy dynamics. The NGFS explicitly designed these as inputs for climate stress testing, capital planning, and risk assessment over a business-planning timeframe.

NGFS Long-Term Scenarios (Phase V)

ScenarioFamilyPeak WarmingTransition RiskPhysical Risk
Net Zero 2050Orderly~1.5°CLow–Moderate (early, gradual policy)Low
Below 2°COrderly~1.7°CLow–ModerateLow–Moderate
Low DemandOrderly~1.5°CLow (behavioral change driven)Low
Delayed TransitionDisorderly~1.8°CHigh (abrupt policy after 2030)Moderate
Fragmented WorldDisorderly~2.3°CHigh (divergent regional policies)Moderate–High
NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions)Hot House World~2.5°CLowHigh
Current PoliciesHot House World~3°C+Very LowVery High

NGFS Short-Term Scenarios (May 2025)

ScenarioNarrativeKey Financial Outputs
Highway to ParisEarly, orderly transition with ambitious, coordinated climate policy rollout achieving a net-zero pathwayModerate carbon price increases; orderly sectoral repricing; manageable PD increases in high-emission sectors
Sudden Wake-Up CallDelayed policy action followed by abrupt, aggressive correction; markets reprice rapidlySharp carbon price spike; elevated PDs in energy-intensive sectors; bond/equity valuation shock; financial stress amplification
Disasters and Policy StagnationSevere regional extreme weather events without new climate policy responsePhysical damage to assets; insurance claims surge; infrastructure disruption; GDP drag from compound events
Green BubbleRapid green investment drives asset price inflation, followed by correction when transition costs materializeOvervalued green assets repricing; financial contagion from green bubble burst; credit risk in transition-exposed sectors

Risk Transmission Channels: From Scenario to Balance Sheet

Translating a climate scenario into balance sheet impact requires mapping the scenario’s macro-financial outputs to specific risk transmission channels.

The NGFS provides scenario-level data on carbon prices, energy mix, GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, sectoral output, and selected physical risk indicators.

The risk manager’s job is to connect these macro variables to counterparty-level credit quality, asset valuations, and operational exposures.

Transition Risk Transmission

Carbon pricing is the primary lever. A rising carbon price increases operating costs for emissions-intensive borrowers, compresses margins, and reduces debt-servicing capacity.

The NGFS Delayed Transition scenario, for example, frontloads a sharp carbon price increase to simulate the cost of late action. Risk managers translate this into credit risk by:

(1) identifying counterparties in high-emission sectors (energy, cement, steel, chemicals, transport, agriculture), (2) estimating the carbon cost pass-through as a percentage of operating costs, (3) adjusting projected cash flows, (4) recalculating probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) under stressed conditions.

The ECB’s 2025 stress test extensions used this approach with NGFS NDC scenario data, finding a moderate CET1 impact of around 74 basis points concentrated in exposures to energy-intensive sectors.

Physical Risk Transmission

Physical risk operates through two sub-channels. Acute physical risk (flooding, wildfire, tropical cyclones, extreme heat) causes direct asset damage, business interruption, and insurance claims.

Chronic physical risk (rising mean temperatures, sea-level rise, changing precipitation patterns, water stress) erodes asset values and productivity over longer horizons.

The ECB’s 2025 analysis integrating flood risk from the NGFS NDC scenario into the EBA adverse scenario estimated an additional 77 basis points of CET1 depletion from physical risk alone. Geographic granularity is essential: physical risk is inherently location-specific.

The NGFS short-term scenarios model physical impacts at the asset-level using georeferenced data, capturing compound events (heatwave-drought-wildfire combinations) and their propagation through production and financial networks.

Connecting this to your risk assessment matrix requires mapping portfolio exposures by geographic coordinates.

Risk Transmission Summary

Risk ChannelScenario DriverFinancial Metric AffectedERM Integration Point
Credit risk (transition)Carbon price increase; regulatory compliance costsPD increase for emissions-intensive borrowers; LGD rise from stranded assetsAdjust internal credit ratings; sector concentration limits
Credit risk (physical)Flood, wildfire, extreme heat damage to collateral and borrower operationsPD increase from business interruption; collateral value declineGeographic risk limits; collateral haircuts for exposed locations
Market riskRepricing of carbon-intensive equities and bonds; green asset bubblePortfolio valuation adjustment; VaR increase under climate stressClimate-adjusted VaR; sector allocation limits
Operational riskPhysical damage to own facilities; regulatory change implementationBusiness continuity disruption; compliance cost increaseBCP scenarios incorporating climate events; regulatory change management
Liquidity riskMarket-wide repricing event; fire sales of carbon-intensive assetsLiquidity coverage ratio pressure; funding cost increaseLiquidity stress test including climate-specific scenarios
Strategic riskMisalignment between portfolio composition and transition pathwayMarket share loss; stranded business linesTransition plan development; portfolio alignment target setting

Conducting Climate Risk Scenario Analysis: Step-by-Step

The NGFS updated Guide (November 2025) outlines a structured approach that aligns with how risk managers already think about risk assessment processes.

The following steps synthesize NGFS guidance with practical ERM implementation experience.

Step 1: Define Objectives and Scope

Determine whether the exercise serves regulatory compliance (supervisory stress test response), internal risk management (portfolio vulnerability analysis), strategic planning (transition pathway alignment), or disclosure (TCFD/ISSB reporting). Each purpose drives different scope decisions.

A regulatory exercise might require full portfolio coverage under prescribed scenarios. An internal risk exercise might focus on the three sectors with highest emissions concentration.

Set the time horizon: short-term scenarios (3–5 years) for capital planning and credit risk; long-term scenarios (to 2050 or 2100) for strategic and investment decisions.

Step 2: Select and Calibrate Scenarios

Choose a minimum of three NGFS scenarios spanning different risk profiles. Common selections include: Net Zero 2050 (orderly baseline), Delayed Transition (high transition risk), and Current Policies (high physical risk).

The NGFS short-term scenarios add near-term granularity: Highway to Paris (orderly), Sudden Wake-Up Call (disorderly), and Disasters and Policy Stagnation (physical stress). Calibrate scenario parameters to your institution’s geography and sector mix.

Use the NGFS Scenario Explorer portal to download country-level and sector-level data. Augment with internal scenario analysis where NGFS outputs need localization.

Step 3: Map Exposures to Climate Risk Drivers

Segment your portfolio by: sector (using NACE/SIC codes aligned with NGFS sector classifications), geography (country and sub-national where possible for physical risk), counterparty emissions intensity (using PCAF or CDP data), and maturity profile (longer-dated exposures have greater climate risk exposure).

The Bank of England’s approach maps corporate exposures to NGFS sector-level output trajectories, then estimates changes in enterprise value and PD.

The ECB uses AnaCredit-level data to map individual loan exposures to geographic and sectoral risk factors. Build your exposure mapping in a format consistent with your existing risk register to ensure integration with broader ERM reporting.

Step 4: Model Financial Impacts

Apply the scenario’s macro-financial variables to your exposure map. Credit risk: use carbon price paths to estimate counterparty-level cost increases, then feed through cash flow models to stressed PDs and LGDs.

Market risk: reprice portfolio positions under scenario-specific discount rates, sectoral output changes, and energy price paths. Use Monte Carlo simulation to capture uncertainty ranges around deterministic scenario outputs. Physical risk: overlay geographic hazard projections (flood maps, wildfire probability, heat stress indices) on asset-level exposure data.

Build tornado charts to identify which scenarios and risk drivers contribute most to total portfolio impact.

Step 5: Aggregate, Validate, and Report

Aggregate counterparty-level results to portfolio, sector, and entity levels. Validate outputs against internal expert judgment and peer comparisons where available. Present results using metrics decision-makers already understand: CET1 depletion, expected credit losses (ECL), portfolio value-at-risk under climate stress, and emissions-intensity concentration ratios.

Link findings to risk appetite thresholds and trigger escalation where breaches occur. Structure the final report to satisfy both internal governance (board risk committee) and external disclosure requirements (TCFD Strategy and Risk Management pillars, ISSB IFRS S2 paragraphs on scenario analysis, ESRS E1 transition plan disclosures).

Integrating Climate Scenario Analysis into Enterprise Risk Management

Climate risk scenario analysis delivers maximum value when its outputs feed existing ERM processes rather than sitting in a standalone report.

The Three Lines Model provides the governance structure: first-line business units own exposure data and implement scenario-driven limits, second-line risk functions maintain the methodology and aggregate results, and third-line internal audit validates the integrity of inputs, models, and disclosures.

ERM ComponentClimate Scenario Analysis IntegrationPractical Action
Risk identificationNGFS scenarios reveal climate-related risks not captured by historical dataAdd climate risk categories (transition, physical) to the enterprise risk taxonomy
Risk assessmentScenario-driven PD/LGD adjustments; portfolio repricing under climate stressRun annual scenario analysis alongside standard stress tests; present climate-adjusted risk metrics to board
Risk appetite and toleranceScenario outputs test whether portfolio composition aligns with stated climate risk appetiteSet sector concentration limits for high-emission sectors; define implied temperature alignment targets
Risk monitoring and KRIsScenario analysis surfaces leading indicators for climate risk materializationTrack KRIs: emissions intensity per $M lent, carbon price sensitivity, physical risk hotspot concentration
Risk treatment and responseScenario findings identify portfolios requiring rebalancing, engagement, or divestmentDevelop counterparty engagement strategies for high-emission borrowers; adjust sector allocation
Risk reporting and disclosureScenario outputs directly populate TCFD/ISSB/ESRS disclosuresAlign internal reporting templates with TCFD Strategy pillar and ISSB IFRS S2 scenario analysis requirements

Connecting climate scenario analysis to key risk indicators creates a continuous monitoring loop.

Rather than running climate scenarios once per year for regulatory purposes, embed scenario-derived thresholds into the KRI dashboard.

When real-world developments (carbon price announcements, extreme weather events, regulatory shifts) move toward a specific scenario pathway, early-warning indicators trigger escalation and response.

Limitations, Challenges, and How to Address Them

The NGFS is transparent about the limitations of its scenarios. They are not forecasts. They do not assign probabilities.

They cannot capture every tail risk, tipping point, or compound interaction. The Phase V physical risk methodology based on the Kotz et al. (2024) damage function has faced academic critique, and the underlying paper was retracted from Nature for methodological review.

The NGFS has acknowledged this and committed to an updated methodology for the next long-term scenario release (end of 2026). Other NGFS outputs, including transition risk pathways and the short-term scenarios, remain unaffected.

Carbon Tracker has argued that even the revised NGFS damage estimates may understate true physical risk, noting that the scenarios assume continued strong economic growth despite high warming levels.

The Sandy Trust quote from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries captures the concern: the approach may exclude the possibility of the most severe systemic outcomes.

Risk managers should use NGFS scenarios as a starting point, not a ceiling, and consider supplementary severe scenarios that explore fat-tail physical risk and non-linear operational resilience failures.

ChallengeRoot CausePractical Mitigation
Long time horizons exceed planning cyclesNGFS long-term scenarios run to 2100; most institutions plan 3–5 yearsUse short-term scenarios for near-term risk; use long-term scenarios for strategic planning and disclosure
Physical risk data gapsAsset-level geolocation data incomplete; hazard models carry uncertaintyStart with portfolio hotspot analysis using available geospatial data; improve over time
Model uncertainty across IAMsThree IAMs produce different outputs for the same scenario narrativeRun analysis across multiple IAMs or use NGFS composite ranges; disclose model sensitivity
Static balance sheet assumptionStandard approach assumes no management action over scenario horizonSupplement with dynamic balance sheet analysis where feasible; document assumption explicitly
Scenario-specific damage function debateKotz et al. (2024) methodology retracted; Phase V physical loss variables affectedUse Phase V transition outputs (unaffected); supplement physical risk with alternative sources and prior NGFS phases
Lack of internal expertiseClimate scenario analysis requires skills spanning climate science, economics, and financial risk modelingInvest in cross-functional training; leverage NGFS published guides; engage specialist advisors for initial implementation

Implementation Roadmap

PhaseActionsDeliverablesSuccess Metrics
Days 1–30: DesignDefine exercise objectives (regulatory, internal risk, disclosure). Select NGFS scenarios (minimum 3). Assemble cross-functional team (risk, finance, sustainability, IT). Map portfolio to NGFS sector and country classifications. Identify data gaps.Exercise design document with scope, scenarios, and governance. Portfolio segmentation by sector and geography. Data gap assessment with remediation plan.Objectives approved by CRO. Scenario selection documented. Portfolio mapped to >80% of exposure by outstanding balance.
Days 31–60: ModelDownload NGFS scenario data from Explorer portal. Model credit risk: carbon cost pass-through to PD/LGD by sector. Model market risk: reprice portfolio under carbon price paths. Overlay physical risk using available hazard data. Run sensitivity analysis.Credit risk impact estimates by sector and scenario. Market risk portfolio repricing output. Physical risk hotspot analysis. Sensitivity report (tornado charts).Credit risk modeled for top 10 emission-intensive sectors. Minimum 3 carbon price scenarios tested. Physical risk mapped for top geographic concentrations.
Days 61–90: Integrate and ReportAggregate results to portfolio and entity level. Validate against expert judgment and peer benchmarks. Design climate KRIs with RAG thresholds. Draft board-level climate risk report. Prepare TCFD/ISSB-aligned disclosure content.Integrated climate risk report with scenario comparison. Climate KRI framework with thresholds. Board presentation pack. Draft disclosure aligned with TCFD/ISSB.Board report reviewed and accepted. KRIs approved and embedded in risk dashboard. Disclosure content covers Strategy and Risk Management pillars.

Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them

PitfallRoot CauseRemedy
Running scenarios in a sustainability siloOrganizational structure separates sustainability from risk managementEmbed climate scenario analysis within the CRO’s domain. Assign second-line ownership to the risk function, not the sustainability team alone.
Treating NGFS outputs as predictionsMisunderstanding the purpose of scenario analysisTrain stakeholders that scenarios explore plausible futures, not forecast outcomes. Present results as ranges, not point estimates.
Using a single scenarioRegulatory minimum compliance mindsetNGFS recommends minimum three scenarios spanning different risk profiles. Add a fourth severe physical risk scenario to explore tail risk.
Ignoring the interaction between transition and physical riskSimplified modeling that treats the two risk channels independentlyUse NGFS scenarios that combine both risks (e.g., Delayed Transition includes accumulated physical damage during the delay period). Model interactions explicitly.
Producing a report that sits on a shelfNo connection to decision-making or risk appetiteLink every scenario output to a specific ERM action: sector limit adjustment, counterparty engagement, capital buffer review, or strategic portfolio shift.
Neglecting data quality and documentationPressure to produce results quicklyDocument all data sources, assumptions, model choices, and expert judgments. Assurance providers and regulators will scrutinize methodology, not just results.

The NGFS short-term scenarios are a first vintage. Expect regular updates that refine the financial metrics, add new scenario narratives (polycrisis interactions, nature-related risks), and expand geographic and sectoral coverage.

The NGFS has committed to publishing an updated physical risk methodology for the next long-term scenario release at the end of 2026, addressing the methodological debate around the Kotz et al. (2024) damage function.

Regulatory expectations are converging around mandatory scenario analysis. The European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) published draft joint guidelines in June 2025 for integrating ESG risk into stress testing under the CRD and Solvency II directives.

The Bank of England continues to embed climate scenarios into its supervisory framework. Even in the U.S., where federal regulators have stepped back from climate-specific exercises, California’s SB 261 requires TCFD-aligned climate risk disclosures that effectively mandate scenario analysis. Market-driven expectations from investors and rating agencies add further pressure.

The frontier is moving toward integrated physical-transition scenarios with nature-related risk overlays.

The NGFS is exploring how biodiversity loss, water stress, and ecosystem degradation interact with climate risks to create compound financial exposures. Risk managers who build flexible, modular scenario analysis platforms now will be able to absorb these extensions without rebuilding from scratch.

Connecting scenario analysis to risk quantification for board reporting ensures that climate insights drive strategic decisions rather than gathering dust in compliance filings.

The bottom line: climate risk scenario analysis using NGFS scenarios is the most effective tool available for understanding how the transition to a low-carbon economy and the physical consequences of warming could reshape financial portfolios.

Risk managers who master this tool, and integrate its outputs into enterprise risk management frameworks, will lead their institutions through one of the most significant structural shifts in modern financial history.

Ready to integrate NGFS scenarios into your risk management framework? Visit riskpublishing.com/services for scenario analysis templates, stress testing frameworks, and expert consulting support. Have questions about climate risk implementation? Contact our team to discuss your approach.

References

1. NGFS Scenarios Portal — Central access point for all NGFS long-term and short-term scenario data and tools

2. NGFS: First Vintage of Short-Term Climate Scenarios (May 2025) — Press release and documentation for the four short-term scenarios

3. NGFS: Updated Guide to Climate Scenario Analysis (November 2025) — Practical reference guide for authorities and financial institutions

4. NGFS Phase V Long-Term Scenarios (November 2024) — Seven long-term pathways with updated physical and transition risk estimates

5. NGFS Short-Term Scenarios Technical Documentation V1.0 — Full technical methodology behind the short-term scenario modeling framework

6. ECB: Integrating Climate Risk into the 2025 EU-Wide Stress Test — ECB analysis of transition and physical risk CET1 impact

7. ECB: 2025 Macroprudential Stress Test Extensions — System-wide climate risk extension results

8. Bank of England: Climate Scenario Analysis and Stress Testing — BoE’s CBES methodology and climate risk stress testing approach

9. Bank of England: Climate-Related Financial Disclosure 2025 — BoE’s own climate disclosure using NGFS Phase V scenarios

10. Carbon Tracker: NGFS Scenarios and the Damage Done (March 2025) — Critical analysis of NGFS Phase V physical risk estimates and GDP growth assumptions

11. KPMG: NGFS Primer on Climate Scenarios — Accessible overview of NGFS scenario structure and IAM methodology

12. Moody’s: NGFS Short-Term Scenarios Impact on Financial Stability — Banking sector implications and implementation guidance

13. SS&C Algorithmics: How NGFS Short-Term Scenarios Impact Financial Stability — Operationalization of short-term scenarios for bank stress testing

14. Munich Re / Risk Management Partners: IPCC vs NGFS Scenarios for Risk Managers — Practical comparison of IPCC and NGFS frameworks for financial institutions 15. CLIMAFIN: NGFS Short-Term Climate Scenarios Released — Announcement from the lead modeling consortium behind s